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Cardinals Reportedly Declined Offer Of Marcus Stroman For Nolan Arenado

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Earlier this offseason, the Cardinals declined an offer from the Yankees that could’ve sent Marcus Stroman to St. Louis for Nolan Arenado, according to a report from Mark Feinsand, John Denton and Bryan Hoch of MLB.com. It’s unknown whether Arenado would have approved that trade. MLB.com reports that the Cardinals never brought it to the star third baseman because they were uninterested in acquiring Stroman.

That’s not to say that talks between the clubs on Arenado are finished. The Yankees still have needs at both corner infield positions. Feinsand, Denton and Hoch report that they’re showing increased interest in Paul Goldschmidt at first base. They write that signing Goldschmidt might make Arenado more likely to waive his no-trade clause to join his former teammate as a corner infield tandem in the Bronx.

Various reports have tied the Yankees to Goldschmidt throughout this week. It seems they’ll turn to one of the short-term free agent options to upgrade first base. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported on Thursday that the Yankees were increasingly likely to pursue a more affordable first baseman than to spend at the top of the market for Pete Alonso or Christian Walker. Walker, whom the Yankees had reportedly preferred to Alonso, has subsequently come off the board on a $60MM deal to Houston.

Interestingly, Goldschmidt’s asking price could itself prove a sticking point. Most predictions, MLBTR’s included, assumed he’d sign a one-year deal as he enters his age-37 season. Feinsand, Denton and Hoch report that Goldschmidt is seeking multiple years. That doesn’t guarantee he’ll find a two-year deal, of course, which would be a lofty ask coming off a middling season.

Goldschmidt hit .245/.302/.414 with 22 homers during his final year in St. Louis. He posted career-worst strikeout and walk rates with overall offense that measured exactly league average. Goldschmidt had a better second half after a dismal start to the season, but the overall numbers are worrisome given his age. MLBTR felt he’d secure $15MM on a one-year deal.

Money is also a complicating factor on Arenado. Even if the Yankees signed Goldschmidt and Arenado were willing to play there, they’d still need to find an agreeable return with St. Louis. The Cardinals owe the eight-time All-Star $64MM over the next three seasons, while the Rockies are on the hook for another $10MM between 2025-26. (Colorado’s obligations would carry over in the event of a trade.) $12MM of the Cardinals’ $64MM is deferred. MLB.com writes that the net present value of what St. Louis owes is around $60MM.

The Cardinals are trying to shed at least the vast majority of that deal. Katie Woo and Chandler Rome of The Athletic reported that the Astros would’ve absorbed around $45MM had Arenado not vetoed the proposed trade to Houston earlier this week. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported differently, writing that Houston would have taken $59MM. In either case, the Cardinals would have shed most of the money.

Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch wrote this afternoon that the extent of the Yankees’ interest in Arenado depends on how much of the deal the Cardinals would cover. While it’s not known how much the Yankees want St. Louis to eat, their proposal of Stroman would’ve been a financial counterbalance. The righty will make $18MM next season and would trigger a matching player option for 2026 if he throws 140 innings. An Arenado/Stroman swap would’ve gotten the Cardinals off the hook for the former’s salaries in 2026-27, but it would not have represented a significant cut next season.

Arenado has a $32MM salary next year, $5MM of which is Colorado’s responsibility. Another $6MM is deferred, so the immediate savings for St. Louis would only have been $3MM. The Cardinals could have tried to flip Stroman themselves. The righty is coming off a 4.31 ERA over 154 2/3 innings. His salary is above market but not egregiously so, but it doesn’t seem the Cardinals had any interest in that sequence of moves.

A player’s competitive balance tax number resets if they’re traded. Assuming the NPV on Arenado’s contract is around three years and $60MM, he’d carry an approximate $20MM luxury tax hit for an acquiring team if the Cardinals did not eat any money. RosterResource calculates New York’s luxury tax number around $287MM. Signing Goldschmidt or taking most of Arenado’s contract would push them beyond the $301MM final tax tier. Doing both would vault them well beyond $301MM, which comes with a 110% tax on every dollar spent from that point.

Astros To Sign Christian Walker

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A new-look Astros club will have a new first baseman in 2025, as the team has reportedly agreed to terms on a three-year, $60MM contract with free agent Christian Walker. The CAA client’s deal is still pending a physical.

Walker’s deal with Houston seems to shut the door on the possibility of a reunion with Alex Bregman. Houston recently acquired Isaac Paredes from the Cubs as part of the trade sending Kyle Tucker to Chicago, and while Paredes could’ve played first base with Bregman in the fold, he’ll be slotted in at third base with Walker now on board. Similarly, this effectively eliminates any chances of Nolan Arenado landing in Houston — an outcome that was all but at the finish line before Arenado invoked his no-trade clause to nix the deal.

Walker, 34 in March, has been a target of the Astros for some time now, dating back to the trade deadline when was reportedly at the top of their wishlist. A deal didn’t get done then, obviously, but Houston still has a need at first base after their three-year deal with Jose Abreu almost immediately imploded on them. Houston first basemen — led by Abreu and Jon Singleton — turned in an awful .226/.291/.360 batting line on the season in 2024. Walker, meanwhile, hit .251/.335/.468 — almost an exact match for the .253/.333/.464 line he carries through 3171 plate appearances dating back to the 2019 season.

On top of his quality results at the plate, Walker has emerged as arguably the premier defensive first baseman in MLB. He’s won three straight Gold Glove Awards in the National League and leads all first basemen in Defensive Runs Saved (33) and Outs Above Average (39) over the past three seasons. Matt Olson (27) and Carlos Santana (20) are second in those respective metrics. Walker’s defensive excellence at his position has essentially been unmatched.

Both Walker and the recently acquired Paredes are strong fits for the Astros, given the short left field porch at the newly renamed Daikin Park. That’s more true of Paredes, who’s one of the game’s most dead-pull and prominent fly-ball hitters. Walker has more of an all-fields approach, but when isolating his splits on pulled batted balls, he ranks 15th among qualified hitters in fly-ball rate (32.2%). Put more simply, Walker may spray the ball around a bit more than Paredes, but when he does pull the ball, he lifts it far more often than the vast majority of big league hitters. For a right-handed hitter with plenty of pop in his bat, that should play quite nicely with a 314-foot left field porch.

It’s been a bull market for free agents this offseason, and Walker had accordingly been hoping to land a four-year deal. He’ll “settle” for a year less than that on a deal that aligns with early expectations. His three-year, $60MM deal is an exact match for our predicted contract back on MLBTR’s annual ranking of the offseason’s top 50 free agents.

The $20MM annual salary on the contract puts the Astros north of the luxury tax threshold for what would be a second straight season. RosterResource now projects them at $244MM of luxury obligations — $3MM north of the $241MM tier-one threshold for the coming season. Their bottom-line payroll will depend on how that $60MM is divided over the three years of the deal, but if it’s evenly distributed, Houston would be just over $225MM in terms of actual player salary. (The luxury tax is calculated separately and based on the average annual value of all the team’s contracts.)

It’s still possible the Astros could duck back under the tax threshold. They’re reportedly telling teams they don’t intend to trade top starter Framber Valdez, but they’ve been exploring the trade market for reliever Ryan Pressly, who’s set to earn $14MM in 2025. More speculatively, they could also gauge interest in backup catcher Victor Caratini and his $6MM salary, then turn that role over to Cesar Salazar, who hit well in Triple-A and the majors this past season.

Dropping back under the tax line, however, doesn’t appear to be any kind of mandate. Owner Jim Crane said earlier in the winter that he “had the wherewithal” to cross that line and match his 2024 levels of spending if the right scenario presented itself. At the time, few envisioned that would entail trading Tucker and letting Bregman walk, but the Astros have been averse to the types of long-term megadeals both players — Tucker in particular — are expected to command. Houston hasn’t given out a contract longer than Yordan Alvarez’s six-year, $115MM contract or Jose Altuve’s six-year, $157.5MM extension under Crane’s ownership, the latter also being the largest guarantee in franchise history.

As a result, the Astros will give out their second three-year deal to a mid-30s first baseman in the past three years. Houston signed the aforementioned Abreu to a $58.5MM deal in the 2022-23 offseason and will still be paying Abreu $19.5MM this coming season after releasing him at the contract’s halfway point. That deal was negotiated by Crane himself and senior advisor Jeff Bagwell, as it came in the lull between the team’s dismissal of former GM James Click and the hiring of current GM Dana Brown. Astros fans may feel some trepidation about another multi-year deal for a first baseman well past his 30th birthday, though it bears mentioning that Abreu was 36 in year one of his contract; Walker will be 36 in the final season of this deal.

Walker declined a $21.05MM qualifying offer from the D-backs at the end of the season. As such, he’ll cost the Astros their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2025 draft, as well as $1MM of space from their league-allotted bonus pool for international amateur free agency. That’s the steepest penalty possible for signing a qualified free agent, but the Astros find themselves in that tier as a result of exceeding the luxury tax threshold in 2024. The fact that they exceeded the tax threshold also means they’d only receive a compensatory pick after the fourth round in the now-likely event that Bregman signs elsewhere.

As for the D-backs, they’ll receive a comp pick after the first round, because Walker’s agreement is for more than $50MM guaranteed. It’ll be a nice parting gift, but Walker’s production will be tough to replicate with in-house options. Former top-10 draft pick Pavin Smith hit well in 158 plate appearances last season, but that was his first big league success in parts of five seasons and came in a small sample. The Snakes can hope for a similar late-bloomer trajectory to the one taken by Walker, but odds are against that. They could look to affordable alternatives in free agency (e.g. Carlos Santana, Justin Turner, a Josh Bell reunion) or sift through a deep trade market of first base options that includes Yandy Diaz, Josh Naylor, Nathaniel Lowe and perhaps Triston Casas (though the asking price on Casas would be extreme and surely cost the D-backs some coveted young pitching).

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported that the two sides were in advanced talks and closing in on a deal. Jim Bowden of The Athletic and MLB Network Radio reported that an agreement was in place, pending physical. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported the terms.

Yankees, Reds Swap Jose Trevino For Fernando Cruz

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The Yankees and Reds finalized a trade on Friday night that sends catcher Jose Trevino to Cincinnati for reliever Fernando Cruz and non-roster catcher Alex Jackson.

Trevino is on the move for the second time in his career. The Yankees landed him from the Rangers shortly after Opening Day 2022 in a deal that sent reliever Albert Abreu to Arlington. That was a win for the New York front office, as Trevino developed into a quality defensive catcher in the Bronx. Abreu, on the other hand, pitched seven times with the Rangers before they lost him on waivers.

The 2022 season has been Trevino’s best. He appeared in a career-high 115 games, hitting .248/.283/.388 through 353 plate appearances. Trevino led all catchers with 21 Defensive Runs Saved that season, earning an All-Star selection and a Gold Glove.

Trevino has opened each of the past two years as New York’s primary catcher. His playing time and offensive production have dropped, though he continues to grade very highly for his receiving skills. Trevino has only appeared in 129 games over the past two years. In 2023, that was largely the result of a ligament tear in his right wrist that necessitated season-ending surgery in July.

The 32-year-old stayed mostly heathy this past season. He missed a month between the All-Star Break and the middle of August because of a quad strain. Trevino was otherwise on the active roster but fell into a depth role. Rookie of the Year finalist Austin Wells is a superior offensive player who grades as an elite receiving catcher in his own right.

Trevino was limited to 62 starts behind the plate overall. He’d basically become a non-factor by the end of the year, as he appeared in just 14 games between his return from the injured list on August 15 and the end of the regular season. He only got two starts during the Yankees’ run to the World Series. He took 234 trips to the plate and hit .215/.288/.354 with eight home runs.

Part of the dip in playing time has been attributable to Trevino’s difficulty controlling the running game. According to Statcast, only Yasmani Grandal had a higher average pop time (throw time to second base on stolen base attempts) than Trevino’s 2.07 second mark. Opponents swiped 57 bases out of 70 attempts in his 544 1/3 innings. Trevino continues to grade exceptionally highly for his framing skills and blocking ability, so he remains a valuable defender, but the subpar arm strength has become an issue.

The Reds evidently placed a lot of value on those receiving skills. Trevino should back up Tyler Stephenson, who hit .258/.338/.444 with a career-high 19 homers this past season. Stephenson started 112 games and tallied a little more than 1000 innings. He didn’t play any first base in ’24 but has played there sporadically in prior seasons. Cincinnati could give Stephenson a few more modified rest days at first base or designated hitter if they’re comfortable with Trevino logging 70+ starts behind the dish.

Trevino has over five years of service time. MLTBR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $3.4MM salary during his last trip through the arbitration process. Taking that on pushes the team’s projected payroll to $104MM (courtesy of RosterResource). The Reds ended the ’23 campaign with a payroll around $100MM and have indicated they’re comfortable matching or exceeding that number.

Stephenson had been the only catcher on Cincinnati’s 40-man roster. They obviously needed to acquire a veteran backup, but it’s still surprising to see the Reds relinquish Cruz for one year of Trevino’s services. Cruz has been a fixture in Cincinnati’s bullpen for the last two years. He has scattershot command but elite bat-missing ability.

Cruz, a native of Puerto Rico, was drafted as an infielder back in 2007. He flamed out as a hitter and was out of affiliated ball entirely between 2016-21. Cruz converted to pitching in 2012 and continued to plug away, however, eventually catching the attention of Reds’ scouts in the independent ranks. He dominated Triple-A opponents in 2022 and earned his first major league call as a 32-year-old that September.

Typically, players who don’t reach the majors until they’re in their 30s are quickly dropped from the roster. Cruz pitched well in his late-season cameo, however, and the Reds kept him on their 40-man. He has topped 65 innings in each of the past two seasons, building from middle relief in 2023 to become one of David Bell’s more frequent leverage options in front of closer Alexis Díaz.

The bottom line results have not been great. Cruz has allowed nearly five earned runs per nine in both seasons. He owns a 4.52 ERA across 147 1/3 career innings. ERA estimators like FIP and SIERA find him significantly more interesting than the actual run prevention would suggest — a testament to his gaudy swing-and-miss numbers.

Cruz has fanned over 35% of opponents in each of the last two seasons. He carries a cumulative 36.5% strikeout rate over that stretch. Among pitchers with 100+ innings, only Josh Hader and Aroldis Chapman have posted a better mark. Spencer Strider, Kirby Yates, Garrett Crochet, Jeff Hoffman, Bryan Abreu, Paul Skenes and Tyler Glasnow round out the top 10. Cruz is similarly dominant on a per-pitch basis. His 16.7% swinging strike rate ranks fifth among that group — trailing Strider, Hader, Andrés Muñoz and Ryan Helsley.

Pitching isn’t solely about strikeouts, of course, but most pitchers who miss bats at those rates are impact arms. Cruz holds himself back to some extent by issuing too many free passes. He walked 12.2% of batters faced this year and has given out free passes to 11.4% of opponents in his career. That’s a concern, but it’s easy to see why the Yankees identified him as an upside play.

Cruz’s calling card is a low-80s splitter, which is one of the most effective pitches in the sport. Cruz used the offering a little more than 40% of the time this year. Opponents only made contact around 40% of the time they swung at it. Batters hit .116 against it. Cruz used it as the finishing pitch for 88 of his 109 strikeouts.

Exceptional as the splitter was, opponents teed off on his other two offerings — a 94 MPH four-seam fastball and a cutter that sits in the high 80s. Cruz has preferred to mix all three pitches rather than fully unleashing the splitter. Whether that’s because of his own comfort or the preference of Cincinnati’s coaching staff isn’t clear, though it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Yankees pushed him to lean more frequently on that pitch. New York allowed Tommy Kahnle to abandon his fastball and throw essentially all changeups for his entire playoff run, for instance.

Cruz has just over two years of big league service. He’s under club control for four seasons. The extended control window isn’t a huge factor for a pitcher who’ll turn 35 in March. It’s a boost in the short term, though, as the Yankees can plug him into the bullpen for around the league minimum salary in 2025.

Jackson, who turns 29 on Christmas, rounds out the return to backfill the catching depth. He signed a minor league contract with Cincinnati last month and will not occupy a 40-man roster spot. Jackson appeared in a career-high 58 games for the Rays last season, hitting .122 over 159 plate appearances. He’s a career .132/.224/.232 hitter over parts of five campaigns. Jackson should get a Spring Training invite, where he can compete with 29-year-old J.C. Escarra — who is on the 40-man roster but hasn’t appeared in the majors — for the backup job behind Wells.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported that Trevino was being traded to Cincinnati. The Post’s Joel Sherman was first with the entire trade. Images courtesy of Imagn.

Nine Teams Exceeded Luxury Tax Threshold In 2024

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Major League Baseball finalized its luxury tax calculations for 2024. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers was first to report the list of payors, while Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reports the details. A record nine teams surpassed the $237MM competitive balance tax threshold. In a separate post, The Associated Press lists the finalized CBT numbers for all 30 teams.

The payments are as follows:

  • Dodgers: $103MM
  • Mets: $97.1MM
  • Yankees: $62.5MM
  • Phillies: $14.4MM
  • Braves: $14MM
  • Rangers: $10.8MM
  • Astros: $6.5MM
  • Giants: $2.4MM
  • Cubs: $570K

Teams pay escalating penalties for exceeding the threshold in consecutive seasons. The Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, and Phillies have all paid the tax in at least three straight years — subjecting them to the highest escalator fees. Texas and Atlanta are second-time payors. Houston, San Francisco, and the Cubs did not exceed the threshold in 2023 and are marked as first-time payors.

The Dodgers ($353MM), Mets ($348MM), and Yankees ($316MM) all had CBT numbers above $277MM, which marked the third tax bracket. All three teams will see their first-round pick in the 2025 draft dropped by 10 spots. Considering they each advanced at least as far as the LCS and the Dodgers won the World Series, those clubs won’t have any regrets about that penalty. Atlanta narrowly stayed below the $277MM threshold to avoid any impact on their draft.

Teams that paid the CBT are entitled to the lowest level of compensation for losing free agents who declined a qualifying offer. They receive a draft choice after the fourth round for each qualified free agent who walks. They’re charged the heaviest penalty — their second- and fifth-highest picks in 2025 and $1MM from their ’26 international bonus pool — for signing a qualified free agent from another team.

The Mets (Juan Soto), Yankees (Max Fried), Giants (Willy Adames), and Astros (Christian Walker) have already signed or agreed to terms with qualified free agents. The Mets (Luis Severino), Yankees (Soto), and Braves (Fried) have lost qualified free agents. Houston is likely to see Alex Bregman walk. The Mets (Pete Alonso, Sean Manaea) and Dodgers (Teoscar Hernández) still have unsigned qualified free agents of their own.

The top eight luxury payors were all clearly above the base threshold, while the three biggest spenders blew beyond every surcharge marker. The only source of CBT intrigue late in the season concerned the Cubs and Blue Jays, both of whom were hovering right around the tax line.

When it became clear that neither team would make the playoffs, they each attempted to dip below $237MM by shedding money via waivers. The Cubs were unsuccessful and landed around $239.9MM; Toronto dropped just below $234MM. The tax impact for the Cubs is negligible — a $570K bill is less than the cost of one player on a league minimum salary — but it places a higher penalty for signing qualified free agents and could incentivize them to stay under the threshold in 2025 to reset their status. Six of the nine payors made the postseason. Texas, San Francisco, and Chicago were the exceptions.

Last year, a then-record eight teams surpassed the CBT threshold. The Padres are the only team that was above the line in 2023 and got below it this year. San Diego finished with an approximate $228MM mark that ranked 11th in the majors — behind the nine payors and the Blue Jays. The Red Sox, Diamondbacks, Cardinals, and Angels were the other teams above the median in payroll. On the other side of the equation, the five bottom spenders were as follows: Athletics ($84MM), Rays ($107MM), Tigers ($110MM), Marlins ($122MM), and Pirates ($123MM).

The teams that exceeded the threshold have until January 21 to pay MLB. The first $3.5MM will be used to fund player benefits. Half the remaining money goes to players’ retirement accounts, while the other half is used for revenue sharing distribution from MLB to teams. Next year’s base threshold climbs to $241MM.

Dodgers, Julian Fernandez Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Dodgers are in agreement with righty reliever Julian Fernández on a minor league contract, reports Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic. The 29-year-old receives an invitation to MLB Spring Training.

Fernández is working to return to the majors for the first time since 2021. He made six appearances for the Rockies that year, allowing eight runs across 6 2/3 innings. That remains his only big league experience. Colorado outrighted him off the 40-man roster in June 2022. Fernéandez spent time in Triple-A with the Blue Jays the following year.

The Dominican Republic native was out of affiliated ball in 2024. Fernández spent the year in Mexico. He had an excellent season with Veracruz, turning in a 1.82 earned run average through 34 2/3 frames. He struck out 32.1% of opposing hitters. Fernández has given up eight runs across 11 2/3 innings in the Dominican Winter League, but Dodger evaluators evidently remain intrigued by his stuff.

During his brief big league stint, Fernández flashed huge velocity. He averaged 99 MPH with his four-seam fastball. That hasn’t actually translated to many whiffs in the affiliated ranks. He has an average 24% strikeout rate and has walked nearly 11% of batters faced over parts of four Triple-A campaigns. Fernández has a 6.05 ERA in 80 1/3 innings at that level.

Mariners, Nationals, Mets Interested In Paul Goldschmidt

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Veteran first baseman appears to be drawing a lot of interest as a free agent. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that the Yankees, Giants, Mariners, Nationals and Mets are all engaged with him. The connections to the Yankees and Giants have been previously covered at MLBTR, as well as interest from the Tigers.

Coming into the winter, the free agent market for first basemen had various intriguing options, but their respective ages gave them different levels of earning power. As part of MLBTR’s annual ranking of the Top 50 Free Agents, Pete Alonso was the top first baseman. Now 30 years old, he was predicted for a five-year, $125MM deal. Christian Walker, who is going into his age-34 season, had a prediction of three years and $60MM. Goldschmidt, now 37, was predicted for $15MM on a one-year deal. Veterans like Justin Turner and Carlos Santana didn’t crack the list but should be in line for one-year deals as well.

Earlier today, the Astros cut out the middle of that market. Walker has reportedly agreed to sign with Houston on exactly the three-year, $60MM deal that MLBTR predicted. For clubs that are still looking for help at first base, there’s now a clear divide between the big-ticket option in Alonso, as well as several other more affordable possibilities. Alonso also rejected a qualifying offer, so he’s also tied to the associated penalties with signing such a player, which depend upon whether a club paid the competitive balance tax this year or is a revenue sharing recipient.

Regardless of how clubs feel about Alonso, some of them will just not be likely candidates to make that kind of a splash in free agency. For those that are looking to make a modest investment at first, Goldschmidt is an intriguing candidate.

As recently as 2022, Goldschmidt was one of the best players at the position. He won National League Most Valuable Player that year, hitting 35 home runs, drawing walks at a 12.1% clip and stealing seven bases. He slashed .317/.404/.578 for a wRC+ of 175 and produced 6.8 wins above replacement, per the calculations of FanGraphs.

But the last two years have been far less impressive. He had a .268/.363/.447 batting line and 122 wRC+ in 2023. In the most recent season, that was down to .245/.302/.414 and a 100 wRC+, exactly league average production. His 7.2% walk rate was the worst of his career. His 26.5% strikeout rate was a personal high, apart from his rookie debut way back in 2011.

That’s downward slope is obviously somewhat discouraging, but Goldy has a strong track record and at least finished strong in 2024. After hitting .230/.291/.373 for an 87 wRC+ in the first half, he posted a .271/.319/.480 line and 120 wRC+ in the second half. The Cardinals aren’t bringing him back as they pivot to a reset year, which involves lowering the payroll. It also means more playing time for younger players like catchers Iván Herrera and Pedro Pagés, which is pushing Willson Contreras to first base.

The Mariners are rarely huge spenders in free agency and are working with budgetary constraints this offseason, reportedly having about $15MM of wiggle room at the moment. It’s been rumored that they are considering Luis Castillo trade offers as a means of opening up some extra room, but they wouldn’t be a likely suitor even in that scenario. They are looking to add multiple infielders and a Castillo trade could perhaps leave them looking to make a rotation addition as well.

Goldschmidt fits well into their offseason plans as they are looking for a right-handed hitting veteran first baseman. They have been connected to Turner and Santana in rumors this offseason, as well as Walker before he agreed to his new deal with the Astros. Goldschmidt is another option they could consider, as he would require a lesser investment than Walker, though likely more than Turner or Santana.

MLBTR’s $15MM projection for Goldschmidt exactly matches what the M’s reportedly have to spend. That wouldn’t leave them any money to get the other infielder they want, likely a third baseman, though perhaps the trade market could help them out there.

The Nationals have been rebuilding for a while but could perhaps be ready to emerge back into contention. Their roster has started to fill up with exciting young talents but president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo said back in September that adding middle-of-the-order bats was a priority this winter.

That kind of addition wouldn’t have to come at first base but it would be the most logical place for it. They have lots of exciting young players for the outfield. CJ Abrams and Luis García Jr. seem to be set in the middle infield. Prospect Brady House is a potential third baseman of the future.

But at first, the Nats gave most of their playing time to Joey Gallo, Joey Meneses and Juan Yepez this year. The club declined a mutual option on Gallo while Meneses was outrighted and has since signed a minor league deal with the Mets. Yepez is still on the roster but is likely viewed as more of a role player than an everyday guy. The Nats also don’t have a strict designater hitter and could theoretically have lots of at-bats to share between Yepez and Goldschmidt or some other external addition.

The Mets technically have a first base vacancy but it would be a surprise to see them put fill it with Goldschmidt. Alonso has been a mainstay there for years and many in the baseball world expect the Polar Bear to wind up back in Queens. If Alonso ends up elsewhere, it’s been expected that the Mets would move Mark Vientos over from third since his defense at the hot corner is not well regarded. That could allow them to pursue someone like Alex Bregman or Nolan Arenado.

It’s clear though that president of baseball operations David Stearns loves short-term deals. Last winter, he signed ten free agents, nine of them getting one-year deals. Sean Manaea got two years but with an opt-out, which he eventually triggered.

This winter, it was thought that he would ramp up the aggressiveness. The 15-year Juan Soto deal certainly qualifies but Stearns has paired that with a pile of far more modest moves. Despite having seemingly unlimited funds to work with, he has given one-year deals to Griffin Canning, Jared Young, Dylan Covey and Justin Hagenman, a two-year deal to Frankie Montas and a three-year deal with an opt-out to Clay Holmes.

Signing Goldschmidt to replace Alonso would likely mean Vientos staying at third base for another year, but that was tolerable in 2024 and he’s only 25 years old, so perhaps he will improve a little with more experience. Guys like Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio and Luisangel Acuña could perhaps push their way into the infield mix over the course of the year, solidifying the infield group for 2026 and beyond.

Blue Jays Sign Josh Walker

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The Blue Jays announced that they have signed left-hander Josh Walker to a one-year split contract. Per Keegan Matheson of MLB.com, the southpaw will make $760K, which is next year’s league minimum, for time spent in the majors. The Associated Press reports that he’ll be paid at a $180K rate while in the minors. Right-hander Hagen Danner has been designated for assignment as the corresponding move.

Walker, 30, has a little bit of major league experience. He tossed 22 1/3 innings with the Mets over the past two seasons, allowing 6.45 earned runs per nine in that small sample. He struck out 22.7% of batters faced while giving out walks at an 11.7% clip. He was designated for assignment by the Mets in July and flipped to the Pirates, though the Bucs designated him for assignment shortly thereafter and eventually released him.

Those major league numbers aren’t especially impressive, but the Jays are likely attracted to his minor league work, where he has shown huge strikeout ability but also significant control issues. He has thrown 89 innings on the farm over the past three years with a 3.54 ERA, giving out walks to 12.7% of opponents but also punching them out at a huge 33.7% rate. The Jays were seemingly intrigued enough by those numbers to give Walker a 40-man roster spot.

Remaking the bullpen is an ongoing project for the Jays after the group let them down in 2024. Toronto relievers had a collective 4.82 ERA this year, with only the Rockies posting a worse number in that category. Since the season ended, Génesis Cabrera and Jordan Romano were both cut from the roster and both have signed with other clubs already. The Jays re-signed Yimi García, who they had traded to the Mariners last year, and also acquired Nick Sandlin in the Andrés Giménez trade.

Prior to this deal, the only lefty relievers on the roster were Brendon Little, Brandon Eisert and Easton Lucas. It’s a very inexperienced group, as none of those southpaws has even thrown 50 big league innings yet. Walker adds another lefty into that competition and he still has an option year remaining, as do the other three, so they might take turns moving between the big leagues and Triple-A throughout the year. Walker still has less than a year of service time, so he can be cheaply retained for many years to come if he continues to hang onto his roster spot.

Danner, 26, he was drafted as a catcher but struck out a lot in the lower levels of the minors and got moved to the mound. In 2021, he tossed 35 2/3 innings at High-A with a 2.02 ERA, 29.4% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate. That was his first professional season as a pitcher but he was already Rule 5 eligible due to the years he spent behind the plate. The Jays gave him a 40-man roster spot after that season to prevent him from being plucked away.

He has hit a few speed bumps since then. He spent most of 2022 on the injured list and only made four minor league appearances. In 2023, he was healthy enough to throw 28 1/3 Triple-A innings with a 3.81 ERA. His 31.5% strikeout rate and 6.3% walk rate were quite good but he allowed eight home runs. He also made his major league debut that year but only tossed one third of an inning before landing on the injured list due to an oblique strain. In 2024, he logged 34 1/3 innings at the Triple-A level with a 3.15 ERA, 23.3% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate.

Overall, the results haven’t been bad, but he hasn’t been able to pitch much due to the time spent catching and the health issues. He has just 114 1/3 professional innings on his ledger thus far and he has just one option year remaining.

DFA limbo normally lasts a week but recent years have seen that clock paused over the period from Christmas to New Year’s. On this date last year, Ryan Jensen was designated for assignment by the Marlins and he wasn’t claimed off waivers by the Twins until January 4, over two weeks later. That will give the Jays some time to see if there’s any trade interest in Danner.

Marlins Sign Eric Wagaman, Designate Vidal Bruján

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The Marlins announced they have signed infielder/outfielder Eric Wagaman to a one-year major league deal. Infielder Vidal Bruján has been designated for assignment as the corresponding move. Salary figures for Wagaman weren’t reported but it’s likely near the major league minimum since the Paragon Sports International client just made his major league debut this year. Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase reported on the signing prior to the official announcement.

Wagaman, 27, was drafted by the Yankees and spent his entire career with that club until about a year ago, when the Angels plucked him away in the minor league phase of the 2023 Rule 5 draft. After a strong season in the minors, the Angels called him up to the big leagues on September 10. He got into 18 games down the stretch as the club was playing out a losing season, stepping to the plate 74 times and hitting .250/.270/.403. He was non-tendered at the end of the year, sending him to free agency without being exposed to waivers.

That’s a very small sample size and the Marlins probably aren’t giving it much weight. He has 897 minor league plate appearances over the past three years, with some intriguing numbers in that larger sample. He hit 35 home runs, struck out just 16.9% of the time and drew walks at a 9.5% clip. He has a combined batting line of .276/.348/.473 over those three seasons, which translates to a 129 wRC+.

He also stole 26 bases in that stretch, getting caught seven times. Defensively, Wagaman was mostly a first baseman with the Yankees but the Angels fanned him out a bit, having him line up at first but also third base and the outfield corners this year.

The rebuilding Marlins have very little settled in their position player mix. At last year’s deadline, they traded away Jazz Chisholm Jr., Josh Bell and Bryan De La Cruz. This offseason, they’ve sent Jake Burger packing as well. None of the position players on the roster have even four years of major league service time. Jesús Sánchez is the only guy with more than three, while Nick Fortes and Derek Hill are the only guys with more than two.

In short, there’s very little written in stone. Sánchez will likely have a corner outfield job but is a candidate to be traded if the Marlins get an offer they like. Connor Norby, Jonah Bride, Griffin Conine, Deyvison De Los Santos, Kyle Stowers and others are candidates for jobs in the corners but they are all fairly inexperienced. Wagaman has a full slate of options, so he can provide minor league depth at various spots or battle for a big league job. He has just a few days of service time and can be cheaply retained into the future if he continues to hang onto his roster spot.

Bruján, 27 in February, was once a top 100 prospect but he hasn’t yet lived up to that hype. He was praised for his speed, athleticism, plate discipline and ability to play multiple positions. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to do enough damage with the bat to make an impact. He has stepped to the plate 550 times over the past four seasons, with five home runs and a .189/.261/.270 batting line. He has swiped 14 bags but he’s also been caught 13 times.

DFA limbo normally lasts a week but recent years have seen that clock paused over the period from Christmas to New Year’s. On this date last year, Ryan Jensen was designated for assignment by the Marlins and he wasn’t claimed off waivers by the Twins until January 4, over two weeks later. That will give the Fish some time to see if any club is interested in taking a flier on Bruján.

For what it’s worth, the minor league results have continued to be good, even as he has floundered in the majors. He has just over a thousand Triple-A plate appearances over the past four years and has slashed .272/.357/.451 in those for a wRC+ of 113. He is out of options but he has less than three years of service time, meaning he can provide four years of club control if any team is willing to give him a roster spot. He has played every position except catcher, giving him plenty of ways to theoretically slot into a club’s plans.

Rangers Sign Hoby Milner

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The Rangers announced the signing of lefty reliever Hoby Milner to a one-year contract. Texas designated former top prospect Owen White for assignment to open a spot on the 40-man roster. Milner, a client of MVP Sports Group, is reportedly guaranteed $2.5MM. He can earn another $500K in incentives — $100K each for reaching 35 and 45 appearances, followed by $150K bonuses at 55 and 65 games.

Milner is a Dallas native who attended the University of Texas. The former Longhorn began his career with the Phillies, who selected him in the seventh round of the 2012 draft. Milner had brief MLB stints with the Phillies, Rays and Angels before finding his way to Milwaukee on a minor league contract after the 2020 season.

The low-slot southpaw had a solid four years with the Brew Crew. He posted interesting strikeout and walk numbers in 2021, so the Brewers retained him despite a 5.40 earned run average. That was a wise call, as Milner was a key piece of Craig Counsell’s bullpen between 2022-23. He combined for a 2.79 ERA across 129 innings over that stretch. Only 30 relievers around the league logged a heavier workload. Milner fanned a solid 23.5% of opponents while limiting his walks to a 5.3% rate. His arm angle flummoxed left-handed hitters, who managed a .199/.259/.284 line across 223 plate appearances.

Milner’s results regressed in 2024. He was tagged for a 4.73 ERA while lefties had a markedly improved .286/.290/.467 slash over 109 trips to the plate. Yet Milner ran an impressive 27:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio while he held the platoon advantage.

His peripherals more broadly remained strong. He punched out nearly 24% of batters faced and kept the ball on the ground more than half the time that opponents made contact. He tied his career high with 64 2/3 innings. The ERA jump was a result of a huge spike in opposing hitters’ average on balls in play, as well as a significant drop in the number of runners Milner left on base.

The Brewers nevertheless decided to move on instead of tendering him an arbitration contract at a projected $2.7MM salary. That worked out reasonably well for Milner, who finds a guaranteed contract at nearly the same rate with his hometown team for his age-34 season. It’s the second bullpen pickup for the Rangers in as many weeks. They added Jacob Webb, who had somewhat surprisingly been non-tendered by the Orioles, on a $1.25MM pact. GM Chris Young and his staff need to add multiple arms to a ’pen that could lose each of Kirby Yates, David Robertson, José Leclerc and José Ureña to free agency. They’ll start with a pair of affordable veterans who can work in the middle innings.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com was first to report Milner was signing with Texas on a one-year deal. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reported the $2.5MM guarantee. The Associated Press reported the incentive structure.

Image courtesy of Imagn.

Phillies Sign Max Kepler

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The Phillies announced Friday that they’ve signed outfielder Max Kepler to a one-year deal. It’s a reported $10MM deal for the VC Sports Group client. Philadelphia already had an opening on the 40-man roster.

Kepler changes uniforms for the first time in his career. The German-born outfielder had spent a decade and a half with the Minnesota organization. He signed with the Twins as a teenager and reached the big leagues late in the 2015 season. Kepler appeared in parts of 10 big league campaigns with Minnesota, stretching beyond the six-year control window after signing a $35MM extension in February 2019.

For most of that run, Kepler was an above-average right fielder. He looked as if he might on the cusp of stardom after a 36-homer showing in 2019, but that proved to be an outlier in a season that was played with the juiced ball. Outside of that year, Kepler has typically been a 15-20 homer threat with decent on-base skills.

Kepler, 32 in February, is coming off his least productive season. He battled injuries in both knees and only appeared in 105 games. Kepler was limited to a career-low eight home runs while posting a middling .253/.302/.380 line across 399 plate appearances. The free passes plummeted alongside the power. Kepler walked at a career-low 5.5% clip, posting his lowest on-base percentage in the process.

The Phillies are hoping that a healthy offseason could allow him to return to his prior form. Kepler had one of his best years as recently as 2023. He hit .260/.332/.484 with 24 longballs (the second most of his career) across 491 plate appearances that season. Kepler set personal highs in average exit velocity (91.9 MPH) and hard contact percentage (47.6%). His hard contact rate dropped by 11 points this year, suggesting that he was playing at less than full strength.

Much of Kepler’s diminished production came late in the season. He carried a league average .256/.309/.394 slash line into the All-Star Break. That dropped to .246/.287/.352 in the second half. The Twins resisted putting him on the IL for a while as they tried to hang onto a Wild Card berth, but his numbers tanked so far in August that he had to land on the shelf. Minnesota’s September collapse meant that he was unable to return for a possible postseason push.

While it ended on a down note, Kepler had a productive run in the Twin Cities. He appeared in more than 1000 games, hitting .237/.318/.429 with 161 homers and just over 500 runs batted in. There wasn’t much doubt that Minnesota would go in another direction this offseason, though. Ownership isn’t giving the front office much financial leeway, so an eight-figure contract to retain Kepler after an injury-plagued season was never in the cards.

At his peak, Kepler was one of the sport’s best defensive right fielders. If not for sharing the Target Field outfield with Byron Buxton, he probably would’ve gotten more consistent run in center field early in his career. Kepler’s defensive grades are still solid but not as strong as they’d been in his 20s. Defensive Runs Saved graded him as a league average right fielder in a little over 800 innings this past season. Statcast credited him with two runs above average.

Better health could help him rebound on defense as well. Kepler fell below league average in Statcast’s sprint speed measurement for the first time. That’s not a surprise considering he was playing through knee pain. On both sides of the ball, the Phillies are hoping that this year was a health-related blip rather than the sign of a sharp decline in his early 30s.

Kepler figures to play mostly left field at Citizens Bank Park. That’s a position he’s never played in the majors, though most right fielders can kick over to the opposite corner without much issue. Kepler hasn’t started a game in center field since 2021, so he’s probably no more than an emergency option there. Johan Rojas and Brandon Marsh are each likelier to handle center field work.

While there shouldn’t be much issue about the positional transition, Kepler’s handedness makes him something of an odd fit. The Phils had sought to find a rotational outfielder who could cut into the playing time for Rojas and/or Marsh. A right-handed hitter would have been the most straightforward solution, allowing the Phils to shield Marsh from lefty pitching. Philadelphia hoped Austin Hays would address that as a deadline pickup, but he spent most of his tenure on the injured list and was non-tendered last month.

Kepler doesn’t fit that need. Like most left-handed hitters, he’s much better against righties. Kepler has a career .243/.326/.452 line versus right-handers. He’s a .221/.292/.363 hitter in more than 1000 plate appearances against southpaws. If the Phils are going to platoon Marsh, he’d probably pair with the righty-hitting Rojas in center field. That’d put the onus on Kepler to stay healthy enough to play regularly in left field.

Marsh could always move back to left if Kepler lands on the IL, yet that’d leave the Phillies with the same middling outfield upon which they’re trying to upgrade. They’d certainly love to offload the remaining two years and $40MM on the Nick Castellanos deal, which would enable them to put Kepler in right field and add another outfield bat. Shedding a notable chunk of the Castellanos money is much easier said than done after he hit .254/.311/.431 this year.

It seems the Phils preferred the price point on Kepler over the asking price for the top righty-hitting outfielders available. Matt Gelb of the Athletic reports that Philadelphia had shown interest in Teoscar Hernández but apparently balked at the ask. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported earlier this week that Hernández was looking for a three-year deal exceeding $60MM.

Signing Kepler pushes the Phils’ salary commitments to roughly $280MM, according to the RosterResource calculations. They’re up to $299MM in competitive balance tax obligations. The Phils went into the offseason with their CBT number already into the third tier of penalization. They’ve paid the tax in three consecutive seasons, so they’re subject to the highest set of escalator surcharges. Their spending between $281MM and $301MM is taxed at a 95% clip, meaning they’re on the hook for $9.5MM in taxes on Kepler. This represents a near-$20MM overall commitment on ownership’s part.

Once they go beyond the $301MM mark, they’ll be taxed at the maximum 110% rate on further spending. The Phillies were a virtual lock to exceed the third tier regardless of whether they signed Kepler. That’ll drop their top draft choice in 2026 by ten spots (unless they miss the playoffs and draw into the top six in the lottery). Signing Kepler and Jordan Romano to one-year deals addresses two of their biggest questions on relatively affordable terms.

Todd Zolecki and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported Kepler and the Phillies were progressing on a one-year contract. ESPN’s Jeff Passan confirmed the agreement and reported the $10MM salary. Image courtesy of Imagn.

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